Ada Health — March 2026
Bristol-Myers Squibb has 1 high-priority drug (Camzyos for obstructive HCM) with exceptional Patient Finder fit, driven by 85% underdiagnosis rates and clear diagnostic delays. Two additional drugs (Sotyktu for psoriatic arthritis, Reblozyl for MDS/thalassemia) show moderate fit. CAR-T and oncology products are unsuitable due to patients being diagnosed before treatment initiation.
| Drug | Indication | Tier | Fit Score | Addressable Undiagnosed (USA) | Ada Revenue Opportunity (Annual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camzyos (mavacamten) |
Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy | 1 | 9.0 | 177,000 - 198,000 | $9.2M - $51.5M (1-5% penetration) |
| Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) |
Psoriatic Arthritis | 2 | 6.5 | 29,000 - 78,000 | $1.2M - $16.0M (1-5% penetration) |
| Reblozyl (luspatercept) |
MDS / Thalassemia | 2 | 5.5 | 1,000 - 2,000 | $135K - $1.35M (1-5% penetration) |
| Abecma (ide-cel) |
Multiple Myeloma CAR-T | NO | 2.0 | Minimal | Not suitable |
| Breyanzi (lisocabtagene) |
Lymphoma CAR-T | NO | 2.0 | Minimal | Not suitable |
| Opdivo (nivolumab) |
Multiple Cancers | NO | 3.0 | Minimal | Not suitable |
| Market | Total oHCM Prevalence | Undiagnosed (85%) | Drug-Addressable | Net Revenue/Patient | PF Fee/Patient |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 462,000 | 392,700 | 177,000 - 198,000 | $52,000/year | $5,200 |
| DACH | 137,900 | 92,960 | 42,000 - 46,800 | $75,000/year | $7,500 |
| Rest of World | 9.5M - 12.3M | 8.1M - 10.5M | 3.7M - 4.8M | $60,000/year | $6,000 |
| Market | 1% Penetration | 5% Penetration |
|---|---|---|
| USA | $9.2M - $10.3M/year | $46.0M - $51.5M/year |
| DACH | $3.2M - $3.5M/year | $15.8M - $17.6M/year |
| Rest of World | $222M - $288M/year | $1.1B - $1.4B/year |
| TOTAL | $234M - $302M/year | $1.17B - $1.49B/year |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| FDA Approval | April 2022 |
| 2024 Revenue | $602 million |
| 2025 Estimate | ~$1.1 - $1.2 billion |
| Peak Revenue (2030) | $2.39 billion (GlobalData) |
| Current Market Penetration | ~30% US oHCM market (20,000+ patients) |
| Top Competitor | Aficamten (Cytokinetics, FDA approved Dec 2025) |
One-liner: "85% of obstructive HCM patients remain undiagnosed while experiencing debilitating symptoms — Ada can surface these $52K/year patients for Camzyos."
Full pitch: Bristol-Myers Squibb's Camzyos addresses a $2.4B peak opportunity constrained by a severe diagnosis crisis: 85% of the estimated 462,000 Americans with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy remain undiagnosed, mistaken for anxiety, asthma, or deconditioning. Primary care physicians detect only 34% of HCM red flags without specialized tools. Yet the core symptoms—exertional shortness of breath, chest pain, fatigue, syncope, and palpitations—are precisely the cardiology-adjacent presentations flowing through Ada's assessment daily. At $52,000 net revenue per patient annually, each diagnosed patient represents $5,200 in first-year Patient Finder fees. With 177,000-198,000 drug-addressable undiagnosed Americans and new competition from Cytokinetics accelerating the race to expand the diagnosed pool, Ada's symptom intelligence can become BMS's diagnostic front door, converting the 85% silent majority into a revenue-generating diagnosed cohort. Even 1% penetration yields $9-10M annually; 5% yields $46-52M.
| Market | Total PsA Prevalence | Undiagnosed (15.5%) | Drug-Addressable | Net Revenue/Patient | PF Fee/Patient |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | ~500,000 | 77,500 | 29,000 - 78,000 | $40,968/year | $4,097 |
| DACH | 175,000 - 207,000 | 27,125 - 32,085 | 4,000 - 10,000 | $65,549/year | $6,555 |
| Rest of World | ~5.6 million | 868,000 | 130,000 - 260,000 | $45,000/year | $4,500 |
| Market | 1% Penetration | 5% Penetration |
|---|---|---|
| USA | $1.2M - $3.2M/year | $5.9M - $16.0M/year |
| DACH | $262K - $656K/year | $1.3M - $3.3M/year |
| Rest of World | $5.9M - $11.7M/year | $29.3M - $58.5M/year |
| TOTAL | $7.4M - $15.6M/year | $36.5M - $77.8M/year |
Target psoriasis patients entering Ada for skin symptoms → add joint pain screening module.
One-liner: "15.5% of psoriasis patients have undiagnosed psoriatic arthritis with 2+ year diagnostic delays — Ada can screen these patients before they reach rheumatology."
| Metric | USA | DACH | Rest of World |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drug-Addressable Undiagnosed | 1,000 - 2,000 | 500 - 1,000 | 5,000 - 10,000 |
| 1% Penetration Revenue | $135K - $270K/year | $108K - $216K/year | $825K - $1.65M/year |
| 5% Penetration Revenue | $675K - $1.35M/year | $540K - $1.08M/year | $4.1M - $8.25M/year |
Better as opportunistic add-on rather than primary focus. Could bundle with broader hematology screening initiative.
Reason: Patients already diagnosed with multiple myeloma or lymphoma before reaching CAR-T therapy. By the time patients need CAR-T, they are 2-3 years post-initial diagnosis and have progressed through multiple lines of therapy. No undiagnosed patient pool exists for these products.
Reason: Cancer patients diagnosed via imaging/biopsy before Opdivo prescribed. While Patient Finder could theoretically help with cancer screening, this is beyond the symptom-assessment model and involves ethical/regulatory challenges for cancer screening claims.
Reason: Mass market drugs (Eliquis), generic competition (Revlimid), or pipeline assets not yet approved (iberdomide, mezigdomide). Not rare disease patient-finding opportunities.