v1 completely missed Zepbound for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA), FDA-approved December 2024. OSA has 80% undiagnosed rate and 7-20 year diagnostic delay - this is a TIER 1 MEGA-OPPORTUNITY worth $240M at 5% capture in the USA alone.
| Drug | Indication | Tier | Fit Score | Addressable Undiagnosed (USA) | Ada Revenue Opportunity (5% capture, USA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zepbound | Obstructive Sleep Apnea with obesity | TIER 1 | 9.5/10 | 6,400,000 | $240.0M/year |
| Kisunla | Early Alzheimer's Disease | TIER 1 | 9.5/10 | 1,200,000 | $72.0M/year |
| Mounjaro | Type 2 Diabetes | TIER 1 | 7.5/10 | 2,000,000 | $85.0M/year |
| Retevmo | RET+ Cancers (NSCLC, MTC) | TIER 1 | 7.0/10 | 1,700 | $1.4M/year |
| Taltz | Psoriasis & Axial Spondyloarthritis | TIER 2 | 6.5/10 | 162,000 | $44.6M/year |
| Verzenio | HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer | TIER 2 | 4.5/10 | 18,000 | $5.4M/year |
| Emgality | Migraine Prevention | TIER 3 | 6.5/10 | 1,500,000 | $41.3M/year |
| Olumiant | RA & Alopecia Areata | TIER 3 | 6.0/10 | 105,000 | $13.1M/year |
| Ebglyss | Atopic Dermatitis | TIER 3 | 6.0/10 | 270,000 | $40.5M/year |
| Omvoh | UC + Crohn's Disease | TIER 3 | 4.5/10 | Minimal (2nd-line) | Minimal |
| Jaypirca | CLL/MCL post-BTK inhibitor | NOT SUITABLE | N/A | 0 (3rd-line) | $0 |
| Drug | Indication | Status | Addressable Undiagnosed (USA, future) | Future Ada Revenue (5% capture) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orforglipron | T2D & Obesity (oral GLP-1) | Phase 3 Complete, NDA Filed | Same as Mounjaro: 2M (T2D) | $85M+/year |
| Tirzepatide MASH | MASH/NASH | Phase 2 Complete | 14,000,000 (95-98% undiagnosed) | $127-212M/year |
| Retatrutide | Obesity (triple agonist) | Phase 3 Ongoing | Same as Zepbound obesity: ~40M | TBD |
| Donanemab Prevention | Preclinical AD (prevention) | Phase 3 Ongoing | 30-40M (3x current) | $180-240M/year |
| FDA Approval (OSA): | December 20, 2024 - First medication approved for OSA |
| Underdiagnosis Rate: | 80% (only 6M of 30M diagnosed) |
| Diagnostic Delay: | 7-20 years from symptom onset to diagnosis |
| USA Prevalence: | 80-84 million OSA total; 32-40 million moderate-severe |
| Drug-Addressable Undiagnosed: | 6.4 million (moderate-severe OSA with obesity) |
| Revenue Per Patient: | $7,500 net (6-18 month treatment to remission) |
| Patient Finder Fee: | $750/patient |
| Ada Revenue (5% capture, USA): | $240.0M |
| Ada Surface Ability: | 9/10 - Snoring, witnessed apneas, daytime sleepiness highly identifiable |
| Company Motivation: | 10/10 - First OSA drug, patient finding IS the opportunity |
| 2025 Revenue: | $13.5B (combined obesity + OSA) |
"67 million Americans have undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnea. They suffer for 7-20 years before diagnosis - falling asleep at work, morning headaches, relationship stress from snoring. Ada identifies the symptom pattern (snoring + witnessed apneas + daytime sleepiness) and navigates to sleep study and Zepbound. At 1% capture, that's $48M in Zepbound revenue. At 5%, $240M. This is your only drug-approved OSA solution, and finding patients IS your OSA market opportunity."
| FDA Approval: | July 2024 |
| Underdiagnosis Rate: | 60-70% |
| Diagnostic Delay: | 7-10 years |
| USA Prevalence: | 11.4 million early-stage AD (MCI + mild dementia) |
| Drug-Addressable Undiagnosed: | 1.2 million |
| Revenue Per Patient: | $12,000 net (6-18 month treatment, finite) |
| Patient Finder Fee: | $1,200/patient |
| Ada Revenue (5% capture, USA): | $72.0M |
| Ada Surface Ability: | 9/10 - Memory complaints, cognitive symptoms highly identifiable |
| Company Motivation: | 10/10 - Diagnosis IS the #1 barrier to Kisunla adoption |
| Peak Revenue: | $2.3B by 2033 |
"7.4 million Americans have early Alzheimer's disease but don't know it. Average diagnostic delay: 7-10 years. Ada identifies memory complaints and cognitive symptoms, navigates to screening and biomarker testing, and finds Kisunla candidates. At 1% capture, that's $14M in Kisunla revenue. At 5%, $72M. Diagnosis is your #1 barrier. We remove it."
| Underdiagnosis Rate: | 24.2% |
| Diagnostic Delay: | 7-10 years |
| USA Undiagnosed T2D: | 10.2 million total; 2.0 million drug-addressable |
| Ada Revenue (5% capture, USA): | $85.0M/year |
| Ada Surface Ability: | 6/10 - Symptomatic cases identifiable, but many asymptomatic |
| Company Motivation: | 9/10 - Very high (LillyDirect, DTC, patient identification focus) |
| 2025 Revenue: | $23.0B (+109% YoY) |
| Indication: | RET fusion-positive NSCLC and medullary thyroid cancer |
| Drug-Addressable Undiagnosed: | 1,700 (USA) - patients with cancer but unknown RET status |
| Revenue Per Patient: | $170,000/year net |
| Patient Finder Fee: | $17,000/patient |
| Ada Revenue (5% capture, USA): | $1.4M/year |
| Value Proposition: | High value per patient; rare disease strategic focus; biomarker testing driver |
"Lilly just approved the first drug for obstructive sleep apnea. 67 million Americans have it, 80% undiagnosed, suffering 7-20 years before diagnosis. We find them. That's $240M in Zepbound revenue at just 5% capture. Then we do the same for your 7.4 million undiagnosed Alzheimer's patients, your 10 million undiagnosed diabetics, and your entire portfolio. This isn't marketing - this is market expansion."
"Four drugs, $400M opportunity: Zepbound OSA, Kisunla, Mounjaro, and Retevmo. All have massive underdiagnosis. All have long diagnostic delays. All have symptoms or risk factors Ada can identify. We navigate patients from symptoms to diagnosis to your therapies. 8-12% of revenue per patient found. No upfront cost. Pay for performance."
"This partnership grows with your pipeline. Orforglipron launches 2026 - same 10M undiagnosed diabetics. Tirzepatide for MASH - 14M undiagnosed, 95% underdiagnosis rate. Donanemab prevention - triples your Alzheimer's addressable market. We're not a vendor. We're your long-term patient-finding engine."