Indication
Advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer (dMMR and all MMR subtypes with carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy)
Market Opportunity
2,565
USA Addressable Undiagnosed
$120K
Net Revenue per Patient/Year
$12K
Patient Finder Fee per Patient
$1.5M
USA Revenue (5% finding rate)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptom: Postmenopausal bleeding (highly specific, present in 90%+ cases)
- Diagnostic Delay: Average 28-65 days from presentation; 20% face delays >28 days
- Common Misdiagnoses: Benign conditions (fibroids, polyps), menopause symptoms
- Who Diagnoses: OB/GYN or gynecologic oncologist after abnormal bleeding triggers workup
Ada Surface Ability: 9/10
Exceptionally strong because postmenopausal bleeding is highly specific and easily captured. Clear decision tree: abnormal bleeding → gynecology referral. Risk factors (obesity, age, diabetes) easily assessed. Minor limitation: Cannot identify dMMR biomarker status.
Company Motivation: 9/10
Very high. Oncology is GSK's fastest-growing segment (+43% in 2025). Jemperli facing intense Keytruda competition. Early patient identification critical to capture market share. Strong investment appetite in Specialty Medicines. Label expansion (Aug 2024) creates immediate need for patient flow.
Pitch Hook
One-liner: "20% of endometrial cancer patients face diagnostic delays >28 days—can we help GSK find them earlier for Jemperli?"
GSK's Jemperli just achieved first-line status for advanced endometrial cancer across all MMR subtypes, but research shows 20% of patients face diagnostic delays exceeding 28 days from initial presentation. With 69,000 new US cases annually and postmenopausal bleeding as a clear, Ada-surfaceable symptom, Patient Finder could identify 2,500+ undiagnosed advanced-stage candidates yearly. At a 5% finding rate, that's $1.5M in annual revenue to Ada while helping GSK compete against Keytruda's market dominance.
Key Considerations
- Competitive Pressure: Keytruda dominates (60-70% PD-1 endometrial market share)
- Differentiation: Jemperli first to show overall survival benefit in overall population
- Revenue Trajectory: >80% YoY growth to $1.1B in 2025
- Patent Status: Likely protected until 2035+ (biologics approved 2021)
Indication
Add-on maintenance treatment for severe eosinophilic asthma (age ≥6 years, blood eosinophils ≥150 cells/µL)
Market Opportunity
134,000
USA Addressable Undiagnosed
$24K
Net Revenue per Patient/Year
$2.4K
Patient Finder Fee per Patient
$16.1M
USA Revenue (5% finding rate)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptoms: Frequent exacerbations despite controller therapy, shortness of breath, wheezing, chronic cough, poor asthma control
- Diagnostic Delay: Average 5-7 years from severe symptoms to severe asthma diagnosis
- Common Misdiagnoses: "Difficult-to-control" moderate asthma, COPD (in older patients), chronic bronchitis
- Who Diagnoses: Pulmonologist or asthma specialist; blood eosinophil testing typically done by specialist, not PCP
Ada Surface Ability: 7/10
Good because Ada can assess asthma symptoms, control level (ACT score proxy), and exacerbation patterns to prompt specialist referral. Limitations: Cannot measure eosinophil levels (blood test required), need medication history to distinguish severity from poor adherence.
Company Motivation: 8/10
High. Respiratory franchise growing (+18%). Dupixent competitive threat creates urgency. Large addressable undiagnosed population (134K USA). Cost-effective patient finding could defend market share. Strong margins on established product.
Pitch Hook
One-liner: "134,000 Americans have undiagnosed severe eosinophilic asthma—can we help GSK find them before Dupixent does?"
Severe asthma patients wait 5-7 years for proper diagnosis, with 30% of the 1.4 million US severe eosinophilic asthma patients going undiagnosed—many trapped in cycles of ED visits and poor control. Ada can identify poorly controlled asthma patterns and prompt specialist referrals for eosinophil testing. With Dupixent projected to become market leader and 134,000 addressable undiagnosed patients, Patient Finder could capture 1-5% finding rates worth $3-16M annually to Ada.
Key Considerations
- Competitive Pressure: Dupixent projected market leader by 2034; Fasenra (Q8W dosing advantage)
- Market Position: ~70-80% share of biologic market for eosinophilic asthma
- Revenue: $2.45B globally projected for 2025
- Patent Expiry: 2033 (no generic/biosimilar until then)
LARGEST OPPORTUNITY BY VOLUME: 2.65 million addressable undiagnosed patients in USA due to extreme underdiagnosis (72%). $42.4M annual revenue at 5% finding rate.
Indication
Triple-therapy (ICS/LAMA/LABA) for moderate-to-severe COPD maintenance treatment
Market Opportunity
2.65M
USA Addressable Undiagnosed
$3.2K
Net Revenue per Patient/Year (blended)
$320
Patient Finder Fee per Patient
$42.4M
USA Revenue (5% finding rate)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptoms: Chronic cough with mucus, shortness of breath with exertion, wheezing, chest tightness, frequent respiratory infections
- Diagnostic Delay: Average 6-11 months; up to 5-10 years for many patients (25% wait >5 years)
- Common Misdiagnoses: Chest infection, "smoker's cough," asthma, normal aging
- Who Diagnoses: PCP (if spirometry available) or pulmonologist. PCPs miss 2/3 of early detection opportunities.
Ada Surface Ability: 8/10
Strong. Classic symptom triad (chronic cough, dyspnea, smoking history) easily captured. Risk factors highly predictive. Diagnostic delay driven by awareness/access gaps, NOT symptom ambiguity. Ada can prompt spirometry referral with high PPV.
Company Motivation: 5/10
Moderate-Low. Mature product entering patent expiry (2027 USA). Medicare negotiation reduces US revenue 73% in government segment post-2027. General Medicines category in "decline to stable" outlook. HOWEVER: Massive undiagnosed population creates volume opportunity. International markets remain attractive (no Medicare negotiation).
Pitch Hook
One-liner: "72% of COPD patients go undiagnosed—2.65 million Americans—but time is running out before Trelegy's patent expires in 2027."
COPD is the most underdiagnosed respiratory disease in America: 26 million patients have spirometry-confirmed COPD but only 10 million know it, with diagnostic delays averaging 5-10 years. Ada can identify chronic cough, dyspnea, and smoking history patterns to trigger spirometry referrals, potentially surfacing 2.65 million Trelegy-eligible patients. Even at Medicare's reduced $2,100/patient pricing, a 1% finding rate yields $8.5M annually to Ada. Your patent expires in 2027 and Medicare negotiations kick in, so the window to maximize Trelegy's revenue is NOW.
Key Considerations
TIMING CRITICAL: US patent expires 2027. Medicare negotiation (73% price cut) begins 2027. Window to maximize value: 2026-2027. Prioritize DACH and ROW markets for longer-term opportunity.
- Competitive Pressure: Breztri (AstraZeneca) primary competitor; single-inhaler triple therapies captured 31% of new COPD Rx in 2025
- Market Position: Leading single-inhaler triple therapy globally
- Revenue: £3.0B in 2025 (+13% growth)
- Medicare Impact: $5.3B Medicare spending 2023 (1.3M patients) → $175/month negotiated price 2027 (from $654)
MODEL MISMATCH: Blenrep treats relapsed/refractory MM (2+ prior lines), NOT newly diagnosed. Patient Finder identifies undiagnosed patients who would be treatment-naive. Reposition as "MM patient finding for GSK ecosystem" with multi-year value delay.
Indication
Multiple myeloma (relapsed/refractory after 2+ prior therapies), combination with bortezomib-dexamethasone or pomalidomide-dexamethasone
Market Opportunity
~0
Immediate Blenrep-Addressable Undiagnosed
6,000
USA Undiagnosed MM (any line)
$8.5K
Patient Finder Fee (eventual, when Blenrep-eligible)
$1.9M
NPV-Adjusted Revenue (5% rate, 3-year delay)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptoms: Bone pain (back, ribs), fatigue, recurrent infections, anemia, hypercalcemia, kidney dysfunction
- Diagnostic Delay: Average 6-11 months from initial symptoms; 9% die within 6 months of diagnosis
- Common Misdiagnoses: Osteoporosis, arthritis (bone pain), chronic fatigue, kidney disease
- Who Diagnoses: Hematologist/oncologist after PCP identifies abnormal labs (anemia, elevated calcium, kidney dysfunction)
Ada Surface Ability: 5/10
Moderate-Weak. MM symptoms are non-specific (bone pain, fatigue). Low PPV from symptoms alone. Diagnosis is lab-driven (SPEP, bone marrow biopsy), not symptom-driven. Ada can flag suspicious patterns, but most bone pain is NOT myeloma.
Company Motivation: 6/10
Moderate. Oncology is strategic priority, but Blenrep is early-stage relaunch (£17M in 2025) after previous withdrawal. Competitive pressure intense (CAR-T therapies, Darzalex dominance). Patient selection critical. Late-line indication misaligns with Patient Finder model.
Pitch Hook
One-liner: "Multiple myeloma patients wait 6-11 months for diagnosis—can we find them early and build GSK's MM patient pipeline?"
While Blenrep treats late-line relapsed/refractory MM, Ada Patient Finder could identify the 6,000 undiagnosed US MM patients annually through symptom patterns (bone pain + anemia + recurrent infections + age >65). These patients would enter GSK's MM treatment ecosystem, eventually progressing to Blenrep after 2+ prior lines. This isn't just about Blenrep's £17M current revenue—it's about establishing GSK as a partner in MM patient identification for your entire oncology portfolio.
Key Considerations
- Late-Line Indication: Patients must complete 2+ prior therapies before Blenrep-eligible (multi-year delay from diagnosis)
- Relaunch Context: Previously withdrawn 2022, re-approved 2024-2025 with combination therapy data
- Competitive Landscape: Darzalex (~40-50% share), CAR-T therapies (15-20%), emerging BiTEs
- Recommendation: Position as MM ecosystem pilot rather than Blenrep-specific to build long-term patient database
Indication
Add-on therapy for active, autoantibody-positive systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and active lupus nephritis
Market Opportunity
16,500
USA Addressable Undiagnosed
$31K
Net Revenue per Patient/Year
$3.1K
Patient Finder Fee per Patient
$2.6M
USA Revenue (5% finding rate)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptoms: Fatigue (>90%), joint pain/swelling, malar "butterfly" rash, photosensitivity, fever, hair loss, oral ulcers, Raynaud's phenomenon
- Diagnostic Delay: Average 4-6 years from symptom onset to diagnosis
- Common Misdiagnoses: Fibromyalgia, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic fatigue syndrome, depression/anxiety
- Who Diagnoses: Rheumatologist via clinical criteria (ACR/EULAR) + labs (ANA, anti-dsDNA, complement levels)
Ada Surface Ability: 6/10
Moderate. Classic symptom constellation (malar rash + joint pain + fatigue + photosensitivity) has good PPV for rheumatology referral. Can assess multi-system involvement. Limitations: Many symptoms non-specific; malar rash only in ~50%; requires lab confirmation; waxing/waning course complicates assessment.
Company Motivation: 7/10
Moderate-High. Specialty Medicines growing (+18%). Established product with good margins. Saphnelo competitive threat creates some urgency. Patient identification could defend market position. Concerns: Mature product (not growth priority), patent expiry approaching, small patient population vs. other opportunities.
Pitch Hook
One-liner: "Lupus patients wait 4-6 years for diagnosis while suffering multi-system symptoms—can we help GSK find them faster for Benlysta?"
Systemic lupus erythematosus is notoriously difficult to diagnose, with patients enduring 4-6 years of debilitating fatigue, joint pain, and organ damage before rheumatologists confirm the disease. Ada can identify the classic constellation—malar rash, arthritis, photosensitivity, and multi-system symptoms—to trigger ANA testing and specialist referrals, potentially surfacing 16,500 undiagnosed Benlysta-eligible patients in the US. With Saphnelo threatening your biologic market leadership and an estimated 15-25% of lupus cases going undiagnosed, Patient Finder could defend Benlysta's position at a 1-5% finding rate worth $0.5-2.5M annually.
Key Considerations
- Market Position: ~70-80% share of biologic market for SLE, but biologics only used in 15-20% of SLE patients
- Competitive Threat: Saphnelo (anifrolumab, AstraZeneca) growing share (10-15% of biologic-eligible)
- Revenue: Estimated $800M-$1B globally (included in GSK Specialty Medicines, not separately broken out)
- Patent Status: Likely 2026-2028 exclusivity end approaching (approved 2011)
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY: Maintenance therapy indication creates model mismatch. Patients must complete surgery + chemo before Zejula-eligible (6-12 month delay). Lynparza dominance (86% PARP market share) reduces GSK motivation. Harvest/divest mode likely.
Indication
Maintenance therapy for adult patients with recurrent ovarian cancer who are in complete or partial response to platinum-based chemotherapy
Market Opportunity
~500
NPV-Adjusted Addressable (USA)
$70K
Net Revenue per Patient/Year (eventual)
$7K
Patient Finder Fee (eventual)
$175K
USA Revenue (5% rate, discounted)
Clinical Profile
- Key Symptoms: Abdominal bloating, pelvic/abdominal pain, difficulty eating, urinary urgency/frequency, fatigue
- Diagnostic Delay: Short (weeks to 2-3 months typically); NOT a long diagnostic delay disease
- Common Misdiagnoses: IBS, functional dyspepsia, UTI, fibroids, menopause symptoms
- Who Diagnoses: OB/GYN initially, gynecologic oncologist via imaging + surgery for diagnosis confirmation
Ada Surface Ability: 6/10
Moderate. Classic symptom quartet (bloating, pelvic pain, eating difficulty, urinary symptoms) identifiable. Can prompt pelvic imaging and CA-125 testing. Limitations: Symptoms non-specific, low prevalence (limited PPV), short diagnostic window, requires imaging/labs for confirmation.
Company Motivation: 3/10
LOW. Mature, declining asset dominated by Lynparza (86% market share). NOT mentioned in GSK earnings as priority. Harvest/divest mode likely. Oncology focus on Jemperli and Blenrep, not Zejula. Limited growth expectations.
Pitch Hook (Lukewarm)
Ovarian cancer patients often suffer weeks of bloating and pelvic pain before diagnosis, with symptoms misattributed to IBS or menopause. However, Zejula's maintenance therapy indication creates a model mismatch: Patient Finder identifies undiagnosed patients, but Zejula is for diagnosed patients post-surgery and chemo. With a 6-12 month treatment sequence before Zejula eligibility, plus Lynparza's 86% PARP market dominance, the opportunity is limited at ~$500K annually to Ada (5% finding rate, all markets). This is a Tier 3 opportunity—pursue only if GSK proactively seeks ovarian cancer patient finding to support their broader oncology ecosystem.
Key Considerations
- Competitive Dominance: Lynparza (AstraZeneca) has 86.2% PARP inhibitor market share in 2025
- Revenue Trajectory: Declining from historical peak ~$500M (not separately broken out in GSK financials)
- Acquisition Context: Acquired from Tesaro 2018; underperformed expectations
- Recommendation: Opportunistic only; pursue if GSK proactively expresses interest (unlikely)
Why NOT Suitable for Patient Finder
1. Low Underdiagnosis in Developed Markets
- USA HIV undiagnosed: ~13% of people living with HIV (87% aware of status)
- Extensive testing infrastructure (routine screening, PrEP programs, STI clinics)
- High awareness campaigns
- NOT a diagnostic delay problem in developed markets
2. Different Patient Finding Model
- HIV patient finding is about testing/screening, not symptom-based identification
- Acute HIV symptoms (flu-like illness) are non-specific and brief
- Chronic HIV is asymptomatic for years
- Symptom-checker approach NOT effective for HIV
3. GSK Strategic Context
- HIV is major revenue driver (£7.7B globally, +11% growth in 2025)
- BUT patent expiry 2028 (dolutegravir core patents)
- Focus on long-acting injectables and retention, NOT patient finding
- Testing infrastructure already robust in target markets
4. Economics
- High per-patient value ($44K annual for Dovato)
- BUT undiagnosed population already small in developed markets
- Patient finding would duplicate existing testing programs
CONCLUSION: HIV drugs are NOT suitable for Ada Patient Finder due to low underdiagnosis in developed markets, different testing model requirements (not symptom-based), and robust existing screening infrastructure.
Why NOT Suitable for Patient Finder
1. Prevention, Not Treatment
- Vaccines prevent disease in healthy individuals
- Patient Finder is designed to find undiagnosed sick patients needing treatment
- Model mismatch: No "undiagnosed shingles" or "undiagnosed RSV"
2. Eligibility-Based, Not Symptom-Based
- Vaccine uptake is based on age/risk factors, not symptoms
- Shingrix: Age 50+ (eligibility-based)
- Arexvy: Age 60+ (eligibility-based)
- No diagnostic delay or underdiagnosis issue
3. Different Outreach Model
- Vaccine uptake driven by PCP reminders, pharmacy programs, public health campaigns
- NOT a patient finding problem; it's an awareness/access problem
4. GSK Context
- Vaccines £9.2B globally (+2% growth in 2025)
- Mature franchise with established distribution
- Focus on new launches (Penmenvy meningitis vaccine) and awareness, NOT patient finding
CONCLUSION: Vaccines are NOT suitable for Ada Patient Finder because they prevent disease in healthy populations (eligibility-based), not diagnose sick patients (symptom-based). Completely different model.