Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a TIER 1 opportunity for Ada's In-Market Patient Finder.
The company's sole marketed product, XDEMVY, treats Demodex blepharitis—a highly prevalent, severely underdiagnosed ocular condition affecting millions of Americans. With 58% of patients remaining undiagnosed despite experiencing symptoms for 4+ years, Ada's symptom checker can bridge the massive awareness-to-diagnosis gap and drive qualified referrals to ophthalmologists, unlocking incremental revenue for both Tarsus and Ada.
| Drug | Indication | Stage | Tier | Fit Score | Addressable Undiagnosed (USA) | Ada Revenue Opportunity (1% / 5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XDEMVY (TP-03) | Demodex blepharitis | Marketed (FDA approved 7/24/2023) | TIER 1 | 9.6/10 | 1,624,000 | $2.32M / $11.61M |
| TP-04 | Ocular rosacea | Phase 2 (data H1 2027) | NO | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| TP-05 | Lyme prevention | Phase 2 (planned Q2 2026) | NO | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Total Condition Prevalence
Undiagnosed Patients
XDEMVY-Addressable Undiagnosed Funnel
| Metric | Value | Source/Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| WAC per 6-week course | $1,850 | EyeWiki, Lotilaner |
| Annual WAC per patient | $2,590 | $1,850 × 1.4 courses/year |
| Gross-to-net discount | 45% | Tarsus Q4 2025 earnings |
| Net revenue per patient | $1,425 | $2,590 × 55% |
| Patient Finder fee (10%) | $143 per patient | Revenue to Ada |
| Period | Net Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2024 | ~$180M | Post-launch year |
| FY 2025 | $451.4M | +151% YoY |
| FY 2026 (Guidance) | $670-700M | +50%+ YoY |
| Peak Sales (H.C. Wainwright) | $885M (2030) | Conservative estimate |
| Peak Sales (Management) | >$2B | Aspirational target |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Estimated total cases | 3.5 million |
| Undiagnosed (58%) | 2,030,000 |
| XDEMVY-addressable | 568,400 |
| Net revenue per patient (EU) | €1,534 (~$1,660) |
| Patient Finder fee (10%) | €153 (~$166) per patient |
| Ada revenue (1% penetration) | €870K (~$940K)/year |
| Ada revenue (5% penetration) | €4.35M (~$4.7M)/year |
| EMA Approval Expected | 2027 |
China: Regulatory approval expected 2026; estimated 12.3M addressable undiagnosed patients; $9.84M-$49.2M Ada revenue opportunity at 1-5% penetration.
Rest of World: Japan and other APAC markets in development; insufficient granular data for full analysis.
| Metric | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Underdiagnosis rate | 58% | Millions suffering without treatment |
| Diagnostic delay (51% of patients) | 4+ years | Chronic suffering, reduced quality of life |
| Negative impact on daily life | 80% of patients | Driving, hygiene, contact lenses, makeup |
| Mental health burden | 67% ↑ anxiety, 52% ↑ depression | Comorbid psychiatric conditions |
| Provider | Role | Actions |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Care Physician | Initial contact | Refers to eye specialist; suggests OTC artificial tears (ineffective for Demodex) |
| Optometrist | First-line eye specialist | Slit-lamp diagnosis via collarette identification; prescribes XDEMVY or refers to ophthalmologist |
| Ophthalmologist | Advanced care | Confirms diagnosis, prescribes XDEMVY, manages complex/refractory cases |
HIGHLY SUITABLE: 9/10
Strengths:
Limitations:
XDEMVY is one of the fastest specialty pharma launches in recent history:
Interpretation: Company is actively investing in patient awareness but has not yet partnered with patient-finding services. Opportunity for Ada
FDA-APPROVED MONOPOLY
VERY HIGH: 9/10
HIGHLY MOTIVATED: 9/10
| Factor | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Growth dependency | 10/10 | "Growth driven by new patients"; must continually find patients to sustain trajectory |
| Underdiagnosis crisis | 10/10 | 58% undiagnosed, 4+ year delay; massive patient pool unreachable by DTC alone |
| Diagnosis bottleneck | 9/10 | Requires specialist exam; PCPs don't diagnose; Ada bridges awareness-to-referral gap |
| Budget availability | 8/10 | $545-565M SG&A; profitability 2027; can afford performance-based fees |
| Competitive moat timing | 9/10 | FDA monopoly until 2028+; every patient found accrues to XDEMVY |
| International expansion | 7/10 | China/Europe launches; will need patient finding in new markets |
| Scenario | Patients Found | Annual Ada Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 1% penetration of addressable | 16,240 | $2.32 million |
| 5% penetration of addressable | 81,200 | $11.61 million |
| Market | 1% Penetration | 5% Penetration | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | $2.32M | $11.61M | Immediate |
| DACH | $0.94M | $4.7M | Post-2027 (EMA approval) |
| China | $9.84M | $49.2M | Post-2026 (regulatory approval) |
| TOTAL | $13.1M/year | $65.51M/year | Phased rollout |
| Dimension | Weight | Score | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Size (addressable undiagnosed) | 20% | 10 | 2.0 |
| Underdiagnosis Rate | 20% | 10 | 2.0 |
| Ada Surface Ability | 15% | 9 | 1.35 |
| Company Motivation | 15% | 9 | 1.35 |
| Commercial Maturity | 10% | 9 | 0.9 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 10% | 10 | 1.0 |
| Patient Journey (delay, QoL) | 10% | 10 | 1.0 |
| OVERALL FIT SCORE | 9.6/10 | ||
TIER 1 - PURSUE AGGRESSIVELY
One-liner for first email:
"Tarsus is capturing impressive growth with XDEMVY, but 58% of Demodex blepharitis patients remain undiagnosed despite experiencing symptoms for 4+ years—Ada's Patient Finder can identify and navigate these patients to care at scale, turning your $1.6M addressable undiagnosed pool into incremental revenue."
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has built remarkable commercial momentum with XDEMVY, achieving $451 million in 2025 revenue and guiding to nearly $700 million in 2026. But beneath this success lies a significant untapped opportunity: more than half of Demodex blepharitis patients remain undiagnosed, with 51% experiencing symptoms for over four years before receiving a correct diagnosis.
These patients are suffering—reporting an 80% negative impact on daily life, 67% higher anxiety rates, and impairment in driving, contact lens wear, and personal hygiene—yet they're invisible to traditional physician outreach and DTC campaigns.
Ada's Patient Finder solves this diagnostic bottleneck. Our symptom assessment can identify Demodex blepharitis suspects based on the distinctive symptom cluster—chronic bilateral eyelid itching, morning crustiness, burning sensation, and comorbid dry eye—and navigate them directly to ophthalmologists and optometrists for slit-lamp confirmation.
With 1.6 million XDEMVY-addressable undiagnosed patients in the US alone, even 1% penetration delivers 16,000+ incremental patients and $2.3 million in performance-based fees to Ada, while expanding your market by millions in net revenue.
This isn't awareness marketing; it's precision patient finding. We identify symptomatic patients already seeking answers, confirm clinical fit through our assessment, and deliver qualified referrals to your prescriber network. With your FDA-approved monopoly providing a 2-3 year partnership window before competition emerges, now is the optimal time to capture the diagnosed market share.
Let's discuss how Ada can accelerate your path to the $2B peak sales vision by solving the underdiagnosis crisis together.
Status: Phase 2 (topline data expected H1 2027)
Tier: NO - Not Suitable
Rationale:
Recommendation: Revisit in 2028-2029 if FDA approved for In-Market Finder consideration.
Status: Phase 2 (planned Q2 2026 start; topline data expected H1 2027)
Tier: NO - Not Suitable
Rationale:
Recommendation: Not applicable for Patient Finder (even post-approval).
| Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|
| Tarsus may view Patient Finder as duplicative of DTC | Position as complementary; DTC raises awareness, PF delivers referrals and closes diagnosis loop |
| Attribution challenges (proving Ada drove prescription) | Unique referral codes, ophthalmology partner tracking, post-Rx patient surveys |
| Budget constraints (company not yet profitable) | Performance-based model minimizes upfront cost; ROI is immediate (patients found = revenue) |
| International expansion may dilute focus | Start US-only pilot; expand to new geographies upon regulatory approval and proven US success |